We label every suburb Strong Buy, Buy, Watch, or Pass. On 12,360 walk-forward postcode-months, those labels stack strictly monotonically against the next 12 months of market-adjusted returns.
1.85×
Strong Buy growth vs market (12mo)
71%
Strong Buy beat-market rate
12,360
Postcode-months backtested
The recommendation tier is the headline output of the system. Detection answers one question. Ranking answers another. We run both — then combine them into a four-tier label.
The five-signal formula answers “is something actually happening here?” It catches suburbs where growth, DOM, vacancy, yield and headroom all fire at once — 85.7% detection accuracy, zero false positives on the decade backtest. This is the entry trigger. The methodology, signals, and 42-suburb breakdown are below.
Detection alone can't tell you how much room is left to run. A suburb at 1.6× the city median that's already rallied is a different bet than one at 0.7× the median just starting to move. Headroom answers “is there still gap to close?”
| Tier | Rule | Share | 12mo growth (median) | Beat market |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strong Buy | Currently booming, below market median, less than 30% of affordability gap consumed | 17.0%(n=2,103) | 16.4% | 71% |
| Buy | Warming or booming, below market median | 27.1%(n=3,349) | 9.2% | 55% |
| Watch | Warming or booming, priced between 1.0x and 1.5x the city median | 46.8%(n=5,788) | 6.6% | 47% |
| Pass | Expensive (1.5x or more than the city median) | 9.1%(n=1,120) | -0.1% | 28% |
After subtracting the broader market's monthly performance — so we're measuring suburb-vs-suburb skill, not just being long the Australian property market — the four tiers stack cleanly. Over the next 12 months, Strong Buy suburbs grew at a median of 16.4% while the median Australian suburb grew 8.9% — that's roughly 1.85× the market growth rate, and Strong Buy beat the market 71% of the time. Pass, at the other end, barely moved. Monotonic across all four tiers is the test that matters — it says the signal is actually ranking, not just sorting noise.
Tier discrimination backtest: 12,360 historical postcode-months since January 2015 across the SQM-derived price universe. Walk-forward, no lookahead — tiers are assigned using only data available at each evaluation date, then scored against the following 12 months.
Real suburbs, real data, real outcomes — at three different time horizons.
Median at detection: $725K
Score
65
Annual Growth
13.5%
Days on Market
23 days
Vacancy
1.6%
Detected Q1 2021. Brisbane values rose 75% from June 2020. Falling vacancy trend signalled tightening supply.
Median at detection: $265K
Score
87
Annual Growth
24%
Days on Market
22 days
Vacancy
0.4%
Detected Q1 2022. Elizabeth suburbs saw 33%+ growth through 2022. Ultra-low vacancy and fast sales confirmed the boom.
Median at detection: $365K
Score
81
Annual Growth
9%
Days on Market
11 days
Vacancy
0.65%
Detected Q3 2022. Perth's south-east corridor saw 34% growth over the following year. Just 11 days on market.
Median at detection: $550K
Score
74.5
Annual Growth
22%
Days on Market
20 days
Vacancy
0.4%
Detected 2024. Rapid growth in Perth's affordable outer ring. Sub-1% vacancy and strong yields.
Median at detection: $370K
Score
92
Annual Growth
33.33%
Days on Market
15 days
Vacancy
<1%
Flagged in the latest production run. Exceptional growth rate with fast turnover — classic boom signature.
Median at detection: $544K
Score
82.17
Annual Growth
23.08%
Days on Market
15 days
Vacancy
<1%
Flagged late 2025. North Queensland showing strong momentum with tight rental markets.
Validated across 78 Australian suburbs — 42 within our target price range of ≤$800K.
24/28
Boomed suburbs correctly detected (≤$800K)
0/14
Non-booming suburbs incorrectly flagged
85.7%
Sensitivity (true positive rate)
100%
Specificity (zero false positives)
Every suburb in the backtest within our ≤$800K target range — boomed, missed, and correctly identified non-booms.
| Suburb | State | Median | Score | Classification | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stones Corner | QLD | $725K | 65 | Early Boom | ✓ Detected |
| Armadale | WA | $365K | 81 | Boom | ✓ Detected |
| Elizabeth | SA | $265K | 87 | Boom | ✓ Detected |
| Mandogalup | WA | $550K | 74.5 | Boom | ✓ Detected |
| Mildura | VIC | $452K | 69 | Early Boom | ✓ Detected |
| Rangeway | WA | $370K | 92 | Boom | ✓ Detected |
| Heatley | QLD | $544K | 82.2 | Boom | ✓ Detected |
| Kalbarri | WA | $320K | — | Boom | ✓ Detected |
16 more rows hidden
| Suburb | State | Median | Score | Classification | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bundaberg South | QLD | $350K | <65 | Warming | ✗ Missed |
| Kwinana Town Centre | WA | $390K | <65 | Warming | ✗ Missed |
| Shorewell Park | TAS | $355K | <65 | Warming | ✗ Missed |
| Berriedale | TAS | $480K | <65 | Warming | ✗ Missed |
All 4 missed suburbs had decelerating quarterly growth despite strong annual growth — the formula caught the slowdown.
| Suburb | State | Median | Score | Classification | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southbank | VIC | $600K | — | Stable | ✓ Correct |
| Darwin CBD | NT | $475K | — | Stable | ✓ Correct |
| Nar Nar Goon | VIC | $580K | — | Stable | ✓ Correct |
| Crib Point | VIC | $540K | — | Stable | ✓ Correct |
| Bangholme | VIC | $620K | — | Stable | ✓ Correct |
| Ballarat Central | VIC | $450K | — | Stable | ✓ Correct |
| Bendigo | VIC | $480K | — | Stable | ✓ Correct |
| Rye | VIC | $720K | — | Stable | ✓ Correct |
| Lalor Park | NSW | $750K | — | Stable | ✓ Correct |
| Jilliby | NSW | $780K | — | Stable | ✓ Correct |
| Shoalhaven Heads | NSW | $690K | — | Stable | ✓ Correct |
| Red Hill | ACT | $750K | — | Stable | ✓ Correct |
| Geilston Bay | TAS | $480K | — | Stable | ✓ Correct |
| Youngtown | TAS | $420K | — | Stable | ✓ Correct |
These suburbs showed no boom-level growth — none were falsely flagged by the formula.
Under the hood. A suburb must fire on all of these signals simultaneously — that's what separates a boom from a blip.
Is the suburb accelerating?
Compares quarterly growth to annual growth — catching acceleration before the headline number catches up.
How strong is the absolute growth?
Annual growth rate thresholds that separate normal appreciation from boom-level movement.
How fast do properties sell?
Days on market plus vacancy rate — when both are low, demand is outstripping supply.
Will growth continue?
Rental yield and vacancy trend direction — high yield with falling vacancy signals ongoing demand.
Room to grow?
Price relative to the city median — suburbs well below the metro average have more room to run.
A suburb must fire on multiple signals at once to score above the boom threshold. One strong metric alone isn't enough — the formula demands convergence.
We'll email you when BoomAU launches — starting with the budget range you care about.